16/05, 2024

How to plan for futute landscapes

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \text{Carbon} - \text{Yield}\end{align*}\)

  • Biodiversity
    • Community composition and rarity
    • Phylogenetic Diversity
    • Functional diversity*
  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)*
    • Ecosystem Functioning*
  • Ecosystem services
    • Above and bellowground carbon potential*
  • Yield
    • Current and potential food production*

Definitions

  • \(\text{EN}\) represents Existingnature.

Biodiversity

\[\color{Red}{\text{Biodiversity} = \sum_{l}^L \sum_{c}^C \text{LD}_{l,c} \times \frac{\text{S}_{l,c} + \text{PD}_{l,c} + \text{R}_{l,c}}{3} \times \text{CC}_{c}}\]

  • \(\text{L}\) represents the set of Landuses.
  • \(\text{C}\) represents the set of Cells.
  • \(\text{LD}_{l,c}\) represents if a cell \(c\) is selecte to change to landuse \(l\).
  • \(\text{S}\) represents Richness.
  • \(\text{PD}\) represents PhyloDiversity.
  • \(\text{R}\) represents Rarity.
  • \(\text{CC}\) represents CanChange.

Contiguity to new nature

\[ \color{Blue}{\text{Contiguity to new} = \text{SCB} \times \sum_{(i,j)}^E \sum_{l}^L \sum_{c}^C \text{LD}_{l,i} \times \text{LD}_{l,j} \times \text{CC}_{i} \times \text{CC}_{j} } \]

  • \(\text{SCB}\) represents SpatialContiguityBonus.
  • \(E_{i,j}\) Is an edge joining Cells i, and j

Contiguity to existing nature

\[ \color{Green}{\text{Contiguity to existing} = \text{SCB} \times \sum_{(i,j)}^E \sum_{l}^L \sum_{c}^C \text{LD}_{l,i} \times \text{EN}_{l,j} \times \text{CC}_{i}} \]

Optimization function

\[ \text{maximize CI} = \color{Red}{\text{Biodiversity}} + \color{Purple}{\text{SCB}} \times \left( \color{Blue}{\text{Cont}_n} + \color{Green}{\text{Cont}_{ex}} \right) \]

  • Spatial Contiguity Bonus (SCB) is a dial

Example Landuse (Global contribution)

\[ \text{maximize CI} = \color{Red}{\text{Biodiversity}} + \color{Purple}{\text{SCB}} \times \left( \color{Blue}{\text{Cont}_n} \right) \]

Local contribution

Latest problem iteration

Solving for three communes

Current landuse

Problem

  • Transform 5,691 cells from agriculture to nature
  • At least 2,405 have to turn to Forest (FWR, FWP, FDR or FDP)
  • At least 962 have to become Wet Nature (FWR, FWP, OWR, OWP)
  • There has to be at least 284 cells of each Nature type

Before after

It can be done for the whole country

Future directions

Carbon

\[\text{Carbon} = \sum_{l}^L \sum_{c}^C\text{AGC}_{c,l} + \text{BGC}_{c,l}\]

Yield

\[\text{Yield} = \sum_{c}^C\text{Yield}_{c}\]